WTO lowers trade growth forecast amid globalmanufacturing slowdown
A continued slump in goods trade that began in the fourth quarter of 2022 has led WTOeconomists to scale back their trade projections for the current year while maintaining a morepositive outlook for 2024.The volume of world merchandise trade is now expected to grow by
0.8%this year,down from the 1.7%forecast in April,while the 3.3%growth projected for 2024rem ains nearly unchanged from the previous estimate.
Trade volume and GDP growth
World trade and output slowed abruptly in the fourth quarter of 2022 as the effects of tighter monetary policywere felt in the United States,the European Union and elsewhere,but falling energy prices and the end ofChinese pandemic restrictions raised hopes of a quick rebound.So far,these hopes have not materialized,as strained property markets have prevented a stronger recovery from taking root in China,and as inflationhas remained sticky in the United States and the EU.Together with the after-effects of the war in Ukraineand the COVID-19 pandemic,these developments have cast a shadow over the outlook for trade in 2023
and 2024.
The WTO now expects world merchandise trade volume growth of 0.8%in 2023-down from 1.7%in ourApril forecast-accompanied by real GDP growth of 2.6%at market exchange rates (see Chart 1).Tradegrowth should then pick up to 3.3%in 2024-nearly unchanged from the previous 3.2%estimate in April -with stable GDP growth of 2.5%.Trade is expected to grow more slowly than GDP this year but faster nextyear;such swings are not unusual given the relatively large share of business-cycle sensitive investment anddurable goods in trade compared to GDP
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