DISRUPTIONS TO GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAINS COULD CONTINUE
Politics and pandemics have reshaped global supply chains in recent years,showing themto be efficient but fragile.Initially,US-China trade tensions resulted in significant tariff hikes.The pandemic and lockdowns then disrupted supply and transport networks.Finally,the warin Ukraine resulted in shortfalls of food and other raw-material products.
Globalization was already slowing over the past decade.Exports as a share of global GDPpeaked at around 50%more than a decade ago,falling to a low of 45%during the past fiveyears (Exhibit 1).As global supply chains transform over the coming decade,we are unlikelyto see the share pertaining to exports return to previous highs.
However,as supply chains will not change overnight,companies remain at risk of furtherdisruption.The magnitude of this disruption could also be more significant shouldgeopolitical tensions worsen or other unforseen events emerge.
THREE STRATEGIES TO REDUCE SUPPLY CHAIN RISKS
We are seeing firms responding to the current risks to global supply chains by undertakingthree principal strategies.
China+1
The global apparel sector has adopted a”China+1″strategy for over adecade.The strategyoriginated in response to rising costs and labor shortages,as well as to shorten supplychains and their respective response times.Bangladesh and Turkey,for example,have beenable to capture a growing share of global clothing exports.
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