This quarterly briefing builds on the latest policydevelopment research as well as consultationsand surveys with leading chief economists fromboth the public and private sectors,organizedby the World Economic Forum’s Centre for theNew Economy and Society.
It aims to summarize the emerging contoursof the current economic environment andidentify priorities for further action by policy-
makers and business leaders in response to thecompounding shocks to the global economyfrom geoeconomic and geopolitical events.
The survey featured in this briefing wasconducted in August 2023.
The September 2023 Chief EconomistsOutbok launches amid slowing globalmomentum and continuing economic
uncertainty.Despite the fact that recessionconcerns appear to have eased,the outlookremains anaemic:six out of ten chief
economists expect the global economy toweaken in the coming year.
Political factors are expected to be animportant infuence on global economicdevelopments in the year ahead,with
arge majorities of respondents expectinggeopolitics (90%)and domestic politics(79%)to be a source of volatility.
Regionally,the growth outlook remainspatchy.Respondents continue to see thestrongest growth in Asia over the remainderof 2023 and into 2024,with the notableexception of China,where prospects ofa strong rebound have been clouded by
deflationary pressures.In the US,the outlookhas strengthened significantly since the May2023 Chief Economists Outlook,with abouteight out of ten respondents now expectingmoderate or strong growth in 2023 and
2024.For Europe,about 77%still expectweak or very weak growth this year.Looking
ahead to 2024,however,respondents pointto a significant brightening of the outlook forthe first time in years.
The survey reveals some signs of optimismabout the likely easing of inflationarypressures.Although,regionally,chiefeconomists expect inflationary concerns
to persist this year,86%of respondentssay that the worst of the inflationary surgewill have passed a year from now.Thisbnightening in the outlook is driven byexpectations across a range of areas,
including weaker wage growth (72%),looserlabour market conditions (68%)and fadingsupply-chain pressures (61%).
The improvement in inflation expectationsis reflected in the chief economists’viewson the future trajectory of monetary policy.Respondents are almost unanimous (93%)in expecting the pace of tightening to slowin inflation-prone economies and expectingglobal monetary policy to become lesssynchronized in the coming year (78%).
Chief economists continue to highlightpotentially damaging knock-on effectsfrom the prolonged tightening of financialconditions.These include tightening oflending conditions,increases in corporatedebt defaults and the prospect of correctionsin property and equity markets.
Many of the headwinds that continue to
buffet the global economy have a particularlyacute impact on developing countries.The chief economists surveyed share
a somewhat pessimistic picture of thecurrent trajectory for global development.The majority of respondents expect futureprogress towards development goals to beundermined by geopolitical tensions (74%)and tighter financial conditions (59%),while only a minority expect to see stronger
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