对全球贸易的影响:红海、黑海和巴拿马运河航线的中断.pdf

Disruptions that affect international shipping have the potential to reshape global maritime networksand reconfigure the world trading map.
Two months into 2024,the Red Sea and Suez Canal disruption that began in November 2023 continuesto unfold,putting at risk the free movement of goods and interwoven global supply chains.The Red Seadisruption comes on top of disruptions that are already constraining vessel crossing in the PanamaCanal and the war in Ukraine affecting activity in the Black Sea.If sustained,these disruptions of keyinternational maritime waterways could cause greater upheaval in global supply chains.
The drop in monthly transits underscores the magnitude of overlapping disruptions and their impact on boththe Suez Canal and the Panama Canal (figure 1).In both canals,transits are currently down by more than40 per cent-almost 50 per cent for Panama-compared to their peaks.In the Suez Canal,most of thedecline in transits occurred over the last two months,while transits through the Panama Canal have beendecreasing over the last two years.The Suez Canal is one of the most important global choke points and maritime waterways.It enables thepassage of energy,commodities,consumer goods and components to and from the Indian Ocean and to theMediterranean and the Atlantic.Trade exposure to the Suez Canal disruptions depends on the extent of itsreliance on this strategic maritime passage.As container trade flows dominate the Canal’s traffic,the responsehas been immediate,with container ships shunning the Suez and rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope.By the first half of February 2024,container tonnage crossing the Canal fell by 82 per cent (figure 2).

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