Today,50 years on from the oil shock that led to the founding of the International EnergyAgency(IEA),the world once again faces a moment of high geopolitical tensions anduncertainty for the energy sector.There are parallels between then and now,with oilsupplies in focus amid a crisis in the Middle East-but there are also key differences:theglobal energy system has changed considerably since the early 1970s and further changesare taking place rapidly before our eyes.
One thing that hasn’t changed since the 1970s is the IEA’s commitment to its core mission ofsafeguarding energy security.As we have demonstrated throughout the global energy crisisthat erupted in February 2022,the IEA is ready to respond quickly and effectively to suddendisruptions in energy markets.At the same time,we continue to dedicate significant effortsto anticipating and addressing the challenges that are evolving and emerging across theentire global energy system.This is an area where the data and analysis of the World EnergyOutlook (WEO)are so valuable.
With the insights of this new WEO in mind,I want to highlight some important differencesbetween where the energy sector was 50 years ago and where it is today.The 1973-74 crisiswas all about oil,but today’s pressures are coming from multiple areas.Alongside fragile oilmarkets,the world has seen an acute crisis in natural gas markets caused by Russia’s cuts tosupply,which had strong knock-on effects on electricity.At the same time,the world isdealing with an acute climate crisis,with increasingly visible effects of climate change causedby the use of fossil fuels,including the record-breaking heatwaves experienced around theworld this year.
A crisis with multiple dimensions requires solutions that are similarly all-encompassing.Ultimately,what is required is not just to diversify away from a single energy commodity butto change the energy system itself,and to do so while maintaining the affordable and secureprovision of energy services.The growing impacts of global warming make this all the moreimportant,as an increasing amount of energy infrastructure that was built for a cooler,calmer climate is no longer reliable or resilient enough as temperatures rise and weatherevents become more extreme.In short,we have to transform the energy system both tostave off even more severe climate change and to cope with the climate change that isalready with us.
A second difference between the 1970s and today is that we already have the clean energytechnologies for the job in hand.The 1973 oil shock was a major catalyst for change,drivinga huge push to scale up energy efficiency and nuclear power.But it still took many years toramp them up while some other key technologies like wind and solar were still emerging.Today,solar,wind,efficiency and electric cars are all well established and readily available -and their advantages are only being reinforced by turbulence among the traditionaltechnologies.We have the lasting solutions to today’s energy dilemmas at our disposal.
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