2023年7月世界经济展望.pdf

Glbal gronth is projeced to fallfrom an estimated 3.5 perent in 2022 to 3.0 perent in botb 2023 and 2024.Whik the forcastfor 2023 is modestly bigher than predicted in the April 2023 World Economic Outlook(WEO),it remains veak by bistorical standards. The rise in eentral bank poliay rates to fight inflationcontinues to veigb on economic actiniy. Global beadine infkation is expected to fallfrom 8.7 perentin 2022 to

6.8 perem in 2023 and 5.2 perem in 2024.Underbyring (eore) injlation is prajected to decline more gradually,and forcasts for inflation in 2024 bare been renised upward.

The recent resolution of the US debt ceiling standoff and, earlier this year, strong action by antborities to comtainturbulence in US and Sviss banking, reduced the immediate risks offnanial sector turmoil. This moderatedadrerse nisks to the outlook. Hoverer, the balane of risks to gobal grontb remains tiled to the donnside.Inflation could remain high and eren nie iffurther sbocks oawr, inchuding those from an inensification ofthewar in Ukraine and extreme veatber-related erents, triggering more restridire monelary polisy. Finamcial sedortarbulence could resume as markeis adjust to funther poliy tightening by central banks. China’s reorery couldslow, in part as a reswlt ofunresohed real eslate problems, with negatiie coss-border ,pillovers. Sovereign debtdistress could ppread to a vider groap of economies. On the upoide, inf lation could fall fuster tban expected,reducing the need for tight monelary poliy, and domestic demand could aggain prore more resiliem.

In mast economies, the prioridy remains achiering sustained disinflation whie ensuring finamcial stabilhiy.Thenefore, central banks sbonld remain focased on restoring price stabiity and strengthening finamial sxpenisionand rik momioring. Should market strains matenialie, countries sbould proride liquidis promptby whilemiggaling the possibiliy of moral busard. They should ako build final buiffers, with the omposition offiscaladjustment ensuring targeled wupporifor the most nlmerabke. Improrements to the suppby side of the economywouldfaciliate fical consolidation and a smoother declime ofinflation toward target lereks.