The global economy has weakened amid a materializing of downside risks. Three key factors are weighing on the global growth outlook:(i) persistently high and broad-based inflation is necessitating a tightening of monetary policy in many major economies; (ii) the growth momentum in China remains weak amid intermittent pandemic lockdowns and the worsening property market crisis; and (iii) Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and associatedsanctions have contributed to continued supply disruptions,rising food insecurity,and energy concerns—particularly in Europe amid a sharp reduction in Russian gas supply. At the same time, growingglobal fragmentation pressures are likely to destroy part of the gains from decades of increasing globalization. Add to this a confluence of downside risks. A worsening energy crisis in Europe would severelyharm growth and raise inflation. Prolonged high inflation could require larger-than-anticipated policy interest hikes, further tightening of global financial conditions, and increasing risks of asovereign debt crisis for vulnerable economies. Increasingly severe weather events wouldcontinue to harm growth across the globe.
Bringing down inflation is a key policy priority,as is addressing elevated debt levels while protecting the most vulnerable groups. The persistence of multiple global supply-side shocks also necessitates a tighter policy stance to facilitate adjustment to the new state of the world.
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