2023年4月世界经济预测.pdf

Figure 2.1.Real Interest Rate Trends

Figure 2.2.(Ex Post)Real Interest Rates in Advanced and Emerging Market and

Developing Economies

Figure 2.3.Kalman Filter Estimates ofthe Natural Rate of Interest for Selected

Advanced Economies

Figure 2.4.Real Rates and Natural Rates: CContemporaneous and Current Estimates for Selected Advanced Economies

Figure 2.5.Measuring the Natural Rate: The Role of International Spillovers Figure 2.6.Natural Rate Estimates:Model Comparison

Figure 2.7.Drivers of Natural Rate Changes from 1975-79 to 2015-19 for

Selected Economies

Figure 2.8.Simulated Path for Natural Rate of Interest: Baseline and Scenarios Figure 2.1.1.The Global Natural Rate of Interest and the Green Transition Figure 2.2.1.Regional Impact of Trade Fragmentation Scenario Figure 2.2.2.Regional Impact of Financial Fragmentation Scenario Figure 2.3.1.Natural Rate Spillovers at Different Horizons

Figure 2.3.2.Estimated Impact of Capital Openness on Strength of US Spillovers Figure 3.1.Public Debt Trends

Figure 3.2.Contribution to Change inDebt to GDP during Reduction Episodes Figure 3.3.Effect of Fiscal Consolidation on Debt to GDP

Figure 3.4.Impulse Responses to a 1 Percentage Point of GDP Primary Balance Shock,