Macroeconomic Outlook Overview(1)
·The macroeconomic outlook remains heavily dependent on inflation and interest rates,both of which are under the microscope.InSeptember,the CPI increased by 3.7%YOY,aligning with economists’expected 3.6%rise.It also rose by 0.4%MOM,down from August’s
0.6%.The core CPl,which excludes volatile food and energy,stood at 4.1%for the 12 months ending in September,its sixth straight month ofcooling.
·The other side of the coin is the Federal Reserve and its ongoing effort to utilize interest rates to mitigate inflation.The Fed raised rates in
Q3,increasing the Federal Funds rate from 5.25%to 5.50%in July.It held off raising rates in its September 20th meeting,citing expectations ofweakened consumer spending and a cooling job market.However,U.S.job growth smashed expectations in September (payrolls increased by
336,000,nearly double the projected amount),raising the possibility of an additional rate hike this year.
·U.S.economic data showcases a resilient and stable economy independent of inflation and interest rates.In addition to the blowout jobsreport,September saw unemployment stay low at 3.8%.The trade deficit shrank to 9.9%,its lowest in three years.The decrease in the trade deficitwas bolstered by a surge in U.S.exports,which increased 1.6%in September,signaling strong global demand for U.S.goods and services.Thisperformance has re-ignited hope for a “soft”landing versus a prolonged recession.
·Geopolitical events such as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine and lsrael-Palestine conflicts,as well as tense relations between China and Taiwan,
loom large as potential catalysts for economic disruption.
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